Written by Dr. S. B. Woo - Jan 28, 2008 at 12:36 AM    People who don't study politics will reasonably conclude that Senator Obama got a big victory in South Carolina (SC). I thought so too. However, now that the exit polls are available, I think Senator Obama is destined to lose big on Super Tuesday when 50% of the delegates will be selected. After that, Senator Hillary Clinton will sweep the nomination. Here are the three major reasons. 

[A] How Sen. Obama Got his SC Victory  

As the mainstream media stressed: Obama's courting of the black vote in SC may cost him the white vote. Exits poll showed that his white support went down by 50%. Since the white vote is still about 75% of the nation's total, the repercussion dooms Senator Obama on Super Tuesday and later primaries.    See http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/SC.html

Senator Obama got only ¼ of the white votes, while Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Edwards split the rest. In the 22 state primaries on Super Tuesday, Senator Clinton will get a lion's share of the white votes, with former Senator Edwards getting much less because he is out of time and money to campaign.   High electoral politics is mathematical. The 55% Senator Obama got in SC were almost all from blacks and white Republicans who strongly dislike Senator Clinton, according to a CNN reporter (John King, I believe). Note that in SC, voters may cross party to vote. In contrast, 2/3 of the 22 states allow only Democrats or (Democrats plus Independents) to vote in a Democratic primary. Polls after polls show that Democrats strongly prefer Senator Clinton. In addition, Mrs. Clinton has very strong infrastructure in all big states, planted since Bill Clinton's time in the White House.  

[B] The Big States Strongly Favor Clinton  

Big states like CA, NY, NJ and IL will select delegate on Super Tuesday. Senator Clinton has a 12-point lead in CA, a 26-pt. lead in NY, while NJ is next to Senator Hillary's home state of NY. Visit http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/election/index.html and go down the page to "Super Tuesday" and see the CA and NY polls. To put things in perspective, just CA has more delegates than all the delegates selected so far.   As of yesterday, Senator Clinton has a lead in every one of those 22 states except IL, which is Obama's home state.   However, I think Senator Obama will also win GA, where there is a 30% black population just like SC. Note that blacks are registered predominantly as Democrats. Even TN may go Senator Obama's way.  

[C] Not Much Time and money left for Obama  

There are only eight days left for Senator Obama to play catch up. His strength is rhetorical skills. He can't use those skills effectively when there are 22 states, some huge, and he has only eight days left.   Senator Obama has raised $8-Million, while Senator Clinton has raised $91-million. My
impression is that Mr. Obama has been spending much faster than Senator Clinton, because he must do very well in early primaries in order to shock and crumble the Clinton foundation. However, he didn't achieve his objectives. They each took 2 states (NH and Nevada for Mrs., Clinton).  

Believe it or not, there is an 85% chance that the election is over for Senator Obama! Why do the media not inform you of the facts shown above? A close race helps increase readership, viewership and listenership.  

Respectfully,
S. B. Woo
Member, Executive Comm., 80-20 PA, Inc.  

 

PS: Checks continue to arrive at 5 Farm House, Newark, DE 19711

THANK YOU. THANK YOU.

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