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Sep 22nd
Home Sections Ecology and the Environment A 9.0-Magnitude Quake Will Destroy Metro Manila and Kill At Least 5.53-million Inhabitants Even Without a Tsunami Following It
A 9.0-Magnitude Quake Will Destroy Metro Manila and Kill At Least 5.53-million Inhabitants Even Without a Tsunami Following It PDF Print E-mail
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Sections - Ecology and the Environment
Written by Bobby M. Reyes   
Sunday, 13 March 2011 14:59


Part I of the Series, “Filipino Armageddon”


By Lolo Bobby M. Reyes of Sorsogon City and West Covina, California


A “Filipino Nostradamus” Has Predicted that Metro Manila, If Not the Country Itself, Would Become a “Land of Desolation” Unless …


S ince September 2005, this writer has been bugging the Filipino national policy-and-decision makers to prepare for massive calamities such as typhoons and earthquakes. I have suggested earthquake-preparedness and disaster-mitigation training, inspection of buildings and retrofitting them to withstand seismic upheavals and organizing disaster-response teams equipped with the right tools and resources. But to no avail.


My latest assertion that a 9.0-magnitutde earthquake would result in the destruction of ALL buildings and infrastructures in Metro Manila has logical basis. Then-Philippine Secretary of National Defense Norberto Gonzales said on June 18, 2010, that a 7.2-magnitude earthquake would result in more-than 3,000 deaths in Metro Manila. To read Secretary Gonzales’ warning, please click on this link:

It Is Just a Question of WHEN a Big Quake Will Devastate Areas in the Philippines, which carries also hyperlinks to my other articles about the forecast big quake happening in the Philippines’ main metropolis and/or other urban centers.


News Update: The Philippine Daily Inquirer reported Monday, March 14, 2011, that “about 34,000 people (would be) dead instantly and 24,000 dead or dying in the rubble. About 110,000 injured and needing immediate treatment. Five hundred fires raging simultaneously. Metro Manila faces these and several other horrific scenes should a 7.2-magnitude earthquake hit the country’s most populous urban area, according to a report released by Pacific Strategies and Assessments (PSA), a multinational firm doing intelligence work for clients on business and security in the Philippines."



The Latest Earthquake in Japan Has Been Upgraded to 9.0 in Intensity and Revised Estimates Put Casualties at More-than 10,000 Deaths


T he Los Angeles Times reported that “Friday’s earthquake off the eastern coast of Japan was upgraded to a magnitude 9.0 by the Japan Meteorological Agency.” It also said in the same report that “in the system describing earthquake strength, each whole-point in magnitude – from 6.0 to 7.0, for example – means almost 32 times more energy was released. A two-point jump signals in increase of about 1,024 (32 X 32) times the energy.”


To read the Los Angeles Times report, “Quake shifted Earth on its axis,” in its entirety, please click on this hyperlink,,0,5782113.story


Extrapolating Secretary Gonzales’ Estimate


T he Los Angeles Times reported that “Friday’s earthquake off the eastern coast of Japan was upgraded to a magnitude 9.0 by the Japan Meteorological Agency.


If a 9.0-magnitude earthquake hits Metro Manila, there would be an increase in energy strength of 1.8-magnitude (or nearly a two-point jump) from the 7.2-magnitude earthquake mentioned by then-Defense Secretary Gonzales.

According to the Wikipedia, “as of the 2007 census, it (Metro Manila) had a population of 11,553,427, comprising 13% of the national population.[2] Including suburbs in the adjacent provinces (Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal) of Greater Manila, the population is around 20 million.”[5][6]

Secretary Gonzales predicted that more-than 3,000 individuals would die if Metro Manila were hit by a 7.2-magnitude quake. If the earthquake would have the strength of the latest temblor in Japan, then approximately 5.530-million persons (rounded off) might perish. This total is arrived at by multiplying 3,000 X 1,843.20 (1.8 X 32 X 32).


This means that more-than one-fourth of all residents in Metro Manila and the adjacent provinces will perish should a 9.0-magnitude quake will occur. And even without a tsunami from the depths of Manila Bay following it.


If a 30-foot or taller tsunami follows the Big Quake, then all bets are off on the number of casualties.


Since Secretary Gonzales did not just arrive at his figure of more-than 3,000 deaths by plucking it out of thin air, then extrapolating his figure should give chills to the residents of, and visitors to, the National Capital Region of the Philippines.


A “Filipino Nostradamus”


T he Filipino people and their leaders should perhaps take seriously the series of articles on earthquakes and other calamities that I have written. Why? On Aug. 31, 2009, I published an essay entitled,

A Biblical Vision Says the Philippines Will Lie in Fallow until 2016 and then Filipinos Will Build New Cities on Hills


I actually wrote most of the said essay a few years back but I decided to publish it only on the last day of August 2009.


I distributed hardcopies of the said essay to the members of the Media Breakfast Club (MBC) on Sept. 23, 2009, a Wednesday. Some MBC members laughed about my prediction that soon The Imperial Manila, if not the Philippines, would become a “land of desolation.”


As I related in Part II of the essay, Some People Are No Longer Laughing at “A Biblical Vision of the Philippines”, the same MBC members stopped mocking my vision. Here is what I wrote in Part II:  Three days later (and 26 days after the article was first posted online), tropical storm codenamed internationally as ‘Ketsana’ (Ondoy) unleashed the deadly flooding of Metro Manila and some 25 other adjacent or nearby provinces. As the cliché says, ‘The rest is history . . .Several MBC members called this writer and they said the ‘Biblical vision about the Philippines’ might probably be right.


After the Ondoy tragedy, some MBC members called this writer the “Filipino Nostradamus.” I did not relish the moniker. Perhaps my vision was just a coincidence.


But then on July 19, 2010, at 0737H (Pacific Standard Time), this writer posted this article, It Is Just a Question of WHEN a Big Quake Will Devastate Areas in the Philippines


Less-than four days and 12 hours later, a series of four earthquakes hit Moro Gulf, off the Island of Mindanao’s Cotabato City.


Another coincidence? Readers can examine my warning in this article: Series of Earthquakes on July 24 Validates Bobby Reyes’ Warning Posted Less-than Five Days Earlier


I have described in earlier articles about my vision that after a major natural calamity, the Laguna de Bay lake would merge with the Manila Bay and become just one single body of water. I do not when it will occur but God, Allah and Buddha forbid that it happens.


I wrote more articles in the hope that somehow Divine Providence would intervene and not let the foretold vision become a reality. If only the Filipino national policy-and-decision makers and the Filipino people would help themselves first in mitigating the effects of the calamity should it happen, then perhaps the Filipino version of the Armageddon will not happen. But then even if it happens, the Almighty helps only those who help themselves. Here are some of the follow-up articles:


Can We Attribute the Homeland’s Desolation, Destitution, Chaos, Filth, Stench, Etc., Etc., to the Filipinos’ Lack of Spirituality?


The “Bahay Kubo” Mentality and Government Neglect, If Not Stupidity and Cluelessness, Are to Blame for Storm-caused Deaths and Destruction


(To be continued . . .)


Newer news items:
Older news items:

Last Updated on Monday, 14 March 2011 19:46
Comments (2)
Bobby, the number of casualties being kept over here in Japan is less than 1,800 despite the vast devastation, because it is the number of casualties the police have positively identified so far, but they are reporting tens of thousands of missing persons in each prefecture devastated by the Tsunami, landslide and avalanche.

It would be real chaos if this kind of thing happens in the Philippines with people who are supposed to be praying for their lives even oblivious to the sufferings of many enough to dare engage in looting, etc., as they did when Mt. Pinatubo erupted.

2 Monday, 14 March 2011 10:50
Magnitude 7.0 will kill a lot, anything larger would involve greater number of people.

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