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Feb 07th
Home Sections Ecology and the Environment Mother Nature Has Spared Metro Manila of Big Quake As It Has Been the Epicenter Only in 1658 and 1771
Mother Nature Has Spared Metro Manila of Big Quake As It Has Been the Epicenter Only in 1658 and 1771 PDF Print E-mail
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Sections - Ecology and the Environment
Written by Bobby M. Reyes   
Tuesday, 15 March 2011 15:25


Part III of the Series, “Filipino Armageddon”


T he Philippine Volcanology and Seismology Agency (PHILVOCS) says that “results of several trenching-excavation surveys at (Metro Manila’s) West Valley Fault (WVF) and the East Valley Fault (EVF) indicate that at least two or perhaps four large surface-rupturing events have occurred (in Metro Manila) since AD 600.” The PHILVOCS made their findings in a 2003 study called, Phivocs Philippines Manila Earthquake Damage Scenario


The said study is mentioned in these hyperlinks:


The PHILVOCS continued to say that “the recurrence interval of the earthquakes generated is less-than 500 years. It has been suggested that the 1658 and 1771 earthquakes could be candidate events for the EVF. However, no event along the WVF is known. If no earthquake had occurred at the WVF after the 16th century, then the earthquake occurrence along the WVF becomes a serious threat.” (Please note that the City of Makati lies in the WVF.)


The Big Quake Is Long Overdue in Metro Manila


M etro Manila has two major fault lines: the WVF and the EVF. The EVF runs north to south along the west and east edges of the Marikina Valley.


The Phivocs Philippines Manila Earthquake Damage Scenario study says further that “as for the source fault of these earthquakes, M. L. P. Bautista (2000) has supposed (the) EVF (in Marikina Valley) as the source fault of the 1658 and 1771 event, (the) Infanta (in Quezon Province) Segment of the Philippine Fault Zone (PFZ) as the source fault of the 1880 event and (the) Laguna-Banahaw Fault that runs north to south along the east coast of Laguna Lake as the source fault of (the) 1937 event.”


The report further states that “in the 36 hazardous earthquakes, only the 1677 event and the 1863 event have the description of tsunami around Metro Manila.”


Per the PHILVOCS study, the strongest earthquakes in the island of Luzon happened in 1645 (7.9-magnitude) and in 1990 (7.8-magnitude) but both temblors did not have their epicenter in Metro Manila. The 1990 quake’s epicenter was in Northern Luzon, close to Baguio City. Since 1900, (as found in the study’s Table 2.1.1) there were more-than 30 earthquakes that caused some damage to Metro Manila but their respective epicenter was far from the National Capitol Region (NCR).


The PHILVOCS study stated also that “Metro Manila will suffer from fire that would burn down some 1,700 hectares of land and kill 19,300 people in the event of the earthquake because there are so many wooden buildings and hazardous facilities.” Presumably the PHILVOCS was talking of a 7.0 to 7.2-magnitude earthquake, which apparently is the number contained in almost all studies about earthquakes in the NCR.


Another Study About Metro Manila


T he has done also a study about Metro Manila and the City of Makati, in particular, to wit:



Metro Manila, Philippines


Makati City, Metro Manila


Makati City is one of the 16 cities and 1 municipality comprising Metro Manila. It has a total land area of 27.36 km2 or about 4.3% of the region’s land area. Its total population is 471,379 as of NSO 2000 Census, with a density of 17,229 persons per square kilometer. The city’s daytime population is estimated to reach at around 1.2-million with transient workers from adjacent cities and municipalities, tourists, businessmen and the like flock the city for business and leisure.


Among the major disaster risks faced by the city is earthquake.


Makati City lies within the West Valley Fault System where large tectonic movements can release seismic energy. An earthquake from this origin could severely affect the city’s central business districts, affecting high-rise office buildings, commercial centers, residential areas and the like. The Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) showed that with a 7.8 magnitude earthquake scenario hitting the city, around 8,918 or 17% of all the buildings will be heavily damaged while around 16,374 (32.5%) will be partly damaged. Expected casualties can rise to 12,000 individuals while 4,000 will be injured. The fire damage in this scenario can cover 116 hectares with 49,000 buildings projected to be burnt down affecting 1,600 people.


Aware of these imminent risks, the Makati City Government created the Makati City Disaster Coordinating Council, pursuant to Presidential Decree 1566—the national framework for disaster risk management. The city provides programs, projects and activities on preparedness, mitigation, operational response and recovery in emergency situations. It also ensures effective coordination of resources and operatives to, during and after disasters.


For more information, please visit



The United Nations Advisory on the Philippines


A ccording to the website,, “the United Nations has advised the Philippines to prepare for a big earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 or even higher.”


Here are the links to its article:


Big Earthquake to Hit Metro Manila Anytime | Pinoy Ambisyoso


(To be continued . . .)


To view Part I, please click this link: A 9.0-Magnitude Quake Will Destroy Metro Manila and Kill At Least 5.53-million Inhabitants Even Without a Tsunami Following It


To read Part II, please go to: # # #



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Last Updated on Tuesday, 15 March 2011 15:37

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