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Oct 23rd
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The Republican Party and the Presidential Elections PDF Print E-mail
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Sections - Politics
Written by Gerry Garrison   
Thursday, 08 March 2012 17:52

 

In This Corner

By Gerry Garrison

 

D ear Readers: As I listen to the news reporters and the Republican and conservative pundits, one would think the Republican nominees for President are on the road to self destruction.  The party elite wanted this over sooner than later and are wringing their hands there are still four candidates running for President after Super Tuesday.

 

Really?  Someone needs to tell these people it ain’t like it used to be. With the creation of the Tea Party, along with more and more people becoming Independents, the people want more of a say how our candidates are selected.

 

Now the elites are crying about the polls. Mr. Obama’s numbers were up and now they are down, and he is going to win the nomination if the candidates don’t “get in line” and get behind Mr. Romney.

 

As I look at the Real Clear Politics averages of the polls of the various match-ups between President Obama and the various Republican candidates, I know I am supposed to feel impending doom. But I don’t. Let’s see. As I look at the 8 March 2012 – GOP ballot support poll numbers this is what I found.

 

GOP BALLOT SUPPORT

 

CHANGE

Romney

38%

+3

Santorum

27%

+4

Gingrich

16%

-2

Paul

11%

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

TRIAL HEAT

 

CHANGE

Romney

44.5%

-4.9

Obama

49.4%

 

 

 

 

TRIAL HEAT

 

CHANGE

Obama

50.4%

+7.0

Santorum

43.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     Spread for Romney +10.7%

 

TRIAL HEAT

 

CHANGE

Obama

52.2%

+12.9

Gingrich

39.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

B ut I don’t feel doom of another Obama presidency. Why?  Because of recent gaffes by Mr. Obama and his refusal to treat the American people with some respect.

 

President Obama’s previous leads of 5.7% to 13.9% over each candidate did not scare me. For reasons stated above, his numbers will change due to increase gas prices, showing bias by trying to get just Black Americans to support him, treating Christianity in this country with contempt, and the folly of his treating the Republicans with distain

 

I also want you, my readers to look to the past and see how unimportant early poll numbers are. At this point 8 years ago this month, John Kerry was ahead of President G. W. Bush by 12 points in the Gallup Poll: 55%-43%.  And in January 1980, the Gallup Poll showed President Carter ahead of Mr. Regan 63% to 32%.

 

That was followed 8 years later with a July 1988 poll by Newsweek that had Mike Dukakis up by 17 points over the first President Bush. Ah yes, the Dukakis "presidency," when we all rode around in tanks and watched Olympia Dukakis film festivals.

 

A blogger known only as Steve T wrote on September 23, 2007: “In my lifetime, I can recount many instances where early national polling has shown itself to be less than useful. In the summer and fall of 1991, George H. W. Bush was leading all Democrats by 20 points or more. The pundits all saw Bush cruising to reelection the following year. Obviously, Bush’s second term never arrived.”

 

In 1995, US Senator Robert Dole constantly led President Clinton in head to head comparisons. Throughout that year we constantly listened to opinions from Dole supporters, “Bob Dole can beat Clinton. Let’s win this thing!” Even as late as January of 1996, one poll had him ahead by more than a few points. As you already know, Dole lost that race by about 8 percent when November election results came in.

 

If you remember what said about Ronald Reagan, they were saying about Rick Perry, Bachmann, and Newt.  Mr. Reagan was outspent by Jimmy Carter.  President Carter had the media on his side just like Mr. Obama does.  And up until the last few of days in the 1980 campaign, pollsters had it close, a toss-up with Mr. Carter perhaps leading in a couple of them. 

 

Even liberals thought there was no way he'd get elected. The Republican Establishment thought the party nominated the wrong guy and that this mistake would put Jimmy Carter back in for another 4 years. Plenty of GOP establishment big shots feared he would play by his own rules rather than theirs.

 

I could go on and on with examples of early polling at the beginning of a presidential race being completely different when it was all done and said.  It is the same now with these elitists, as it was when Mr. Reagan was elected in 1980. Ronald Reagan didn’t pay attention to poll numbers, but took on a platform of a strong national defense and limited government.

 

Fast forward to today where much of the discourse is like watching a remake of a 1978 classic "Is he electable?" Only this time, the leader of this quote is by a woman from Alaska who has fired up the Republican base in much the same way that Mr. Reagan did in 1976.

 

When the decision comes down to whom I support, current head to head poll numbers do not factor in. I look for someone who has shown proven leadership, projects optimism, and fights for things that I believe in, and can unite the party. In my view, the two candidates that match all of the criteria: Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney.

 

The purpose of this post is not to endorse anyone. At various times various people have demanded that candidates drop out. Rick Santorum was written off. Newt Gingrich was written off. And while no one has asked Ron Paul to leave, let’s face it no one gives him a chance to win except his wife.

 

I will let readers in on a little secret: Most voters are paying little attention to this race and won’t until after Labor Day.  So, keep fighting, keep believing in your candidate. He’ll leave when he decides to leave.

 

My prediction: Republicans will nominate someone and he will defeat President Obama. It looks like that candidate is Mitt Romney.  Mathematics tells the truth.  Mr. Romney would have to really screw up not get the 1144 or delegates he needs to be the nominee by June.

 

In the end, it was the people who voted for "anybody but Carter" that put Ronald Reagan over the top. The same will hold true for the Republican nominee, who will win the presidency because of the "anybody but Obama" vote. 

 

But what do I know. I am just a small cog in a big conservative wheel.  Just sayin’ … # # #

 

 

Life is short. Forgive quickly. Kiss slowly. Love truly.

Laugh uncontrollably, and never regret anything that made you smile.



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Last Updated on Thursday, 08 March 2012 18:08
 

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