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Home Sections Politics Why John Chiang Will Win the Election for Governor of California (Part II)
Why John Chiang Will Win the Election for Governor of California (Part II) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Bobby M. Reyes   
Friday, 18 May 2018 21:19


Why John Chiang Will Win the Election for Governor of California (Part II)
By Bobby M. Reyes, editor-in-chief of the www.mabuhayradio.com
Here are some of the reasons why current State Treasurer John Chiang will emerge at least second in the June 5, 2018, primary election and beat convincingly the top vote getter in the general election:
1.0) To date, none of the polls shows any gubernatorial candidate garnering at least 50% plus one. This means that the top-two vote getters in the June 5, 2018, primary election will proceed to go on a run-off in the Nov. 6, 2018, general election. Polls also show that almost one-fourth (1/4) of the voters polled did not express any preference for any of the six leading candidates (four Democrats and two Republicans). So, it is actually “anybody’s ballgame,” to use an oft-quoted sporting phrase. But facts favor Mr. Chiang, who is running third in most polls, to win it all -- as will be explained in this hypothesis of an op-ed article.
2.0) Since Democrats outnumber Republicans by twenty (20%) percentage points in voters’ party registration, the probability is that great that the top-two vote getters in the primary will be Democrats. And since there are two Republican contenders, Assemblymember Travis Allen and Businessman John Cox, who are both equally strong among the GOP members, they will just divide the minority California voters that are the Republicans. For all intents and purposes, the GOP candidates will have a hard time winning, especially since Mr. Cox was recently endorsed by President Trump, who is very unpopular in California. Many the voters who are liberal and/or feminine and/or from the LGBT ranks and/or Millennials and/or are members of the minority communities just despise the current tenant in The White House.
3.0) And speaking of the Democratic candidates, nobody among the four major bets obtained 60% that was needed to secure the party’s nomination during the voting done by delegates at their State convention in San Diego, CA, on Feb. 24-25, 2018. The results showed that Lt. Governor Newsom received the most votes — 39% —” winning a consolation prize of bragging rights,” to borrow the phrase of the Los Angeles Times. He was trailed -- unexpectedly by many pundits (but not this writer) -- by State Treasurer John Chiang at 30%, Educator Delaine Eastin at 20% and former Los Angeles Mayor and now Public-Policy Advisor Antonio Villaraigosa trailing badly at 9%.
4.0) Among the Democratic aspirants, only John Chiang (for State Controller in 2007 and State Treasurer in 2014) and Ms. Eastin (for State Education Superintendent) have run twice in state-wide contests. Mr. Newsom has only run once in his career for a state-wide position. Mr. Villaraigosa has never run for a state-wide position in his life. This was the reason why Mr. Chiang and Ms. Eastin garnered more Democratic convention votes than Mr. Villaraigosa -- as Democrats are more familiar with Mr. Chiang and Ms. Eastin.
5.0) The recent decision by the California chapter of the National Organization for Women (NOW) to endorse Mr. Chiang should affect severely the candidacy of Ms. Delaine Eastin. Woman voters would think twice about “wasting” (sic) their votes for Ms. Eastin, whose poll numbers (at 1% to 3%) are the lowest among the six major candidates. On the other hand, Mr. Chiang (at 9% to 12%) comes closest to the second-placer Mr. Villaraigosa (at 14% to 18%). As this op-ed writer has predicted in Part I of this series, woman issues would sink or greatly affect negatively the candidacies of Mr. Newsom and Mr. Villaraigosa. Many lady voters will gravitate to the candidate endorsed by the NOW and who has a fighting chance to win over the two male Democratic candidates, who have been accused of taking advantage of women.
6.0) Many voters also noted that while Mr. Chiang polled only between 3% to 4% in December 2017, he has tripled (or even quadrupled) his poll ratings since then. And the poll numbers of Mr. Newsom and Mr. Villaraigosa continue to go down -- even before Mr. Cox spent a considerable fortune in attacking in TV ads the track record of Mr. Villaraigosa in woman relations. And the attacks by Mr. Cox on Mr. Villaraigosa have allegedly affected, too, the candidacy of Mr. Newsom, who shares also the “womanizing” image of Mr. Villaraigosa.
7.0) The present economic difficulties not only in CA but also throughout the U.S. -- brought about by President Trump’s kooky economic-and-diplomatic moves that are causing increases in the prices of gasoline, diesel-fuel and natural gas that will lead to higher consumer prices that will result to more unemployment, underemployment and economic downturn -- will make the voters of CA choose wisely their new governor. Many voters will look at the financial-management savvy and track records of the candidates. In this respect, John Chiang will garner the highest confidence and trust of voters due to his excellent, scandal-free and fiscally-conservative records as State Controller and now as State Treasurer. His two closest opponents tainted their mayoralty records in San Francisco and Los Angeles, respectively, by their administration’s frequent budgetary deficits.
8.0) The majority of CA’s population is composed actually of Ethnic Minorities: Native-American Indians, Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders, Afro Americans, Latino Americans and other Californians of mixed blood. CA has not elected a minority candidate as its governor in its history. While many Californians of Asian descent want Mr. Chiang to become the first Asian-American governor, many Latino-American community leaders do not think Mr. Villaraigosa will merit the designation of being the first Mexican-American governor if elected as CA’s head of state. Why? Many Latino Americans now consider Mr. Villaraigosa as a “Teflon Don,” who has abandoned his constituents in favor of corporate supporters like Herbalife and the Payday-loan businesses and the glamour of Hollywood. Many Latino Americans also laugh at the term “Public-Policy Advisor” that Mr. Villaraigosa chose to describe himself in the ballot. People say that it merely a euphemism for a “Lobbyist.” Incidentally, Mr. Newsom is also called a “Teflon Don.”
9.0) All that Mr. Chiang has to do is continue his “anemic campaign” (as the Sacramento Bee newspaper has dubbed it) and welcome the tens of thousands of the “Little People” that flock now to his candidacy. Yes, the small guys are infusing “fresh blood” in Mr. Chiang’s bandwagon day in, day out. All that Mr. Chiang has to do is to place second in the primary and face the considered shoo-in, Gavin Newsom, in the general election. Yes, all those who detest Mr. Newsom, especially the Republicans, will vote for the other guy, John Chiang, who may receive the biggest mandate in the gubernatorial election of CA. And ...
10.0) Here is like an insurance policy for Mr. Chiang’s expected great-and-overwhelming mandate. Many Californians, especially Republicans and even middle-of-the-road Democrats, want to defeat Mr. Newsom because he is the nephew of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. And because Mr. Newsom happens to be the godchild of Sen. Diane Feinstein. While the two lady politicians may still win their re-election campaigns, many Californians want to defeat at least their baby, Gavin Newsom, who is the personification of the Democratic Old Guards that have stayed too long, have been pro-Wall Street for much of their political lives and who represent the Status Quo that prevented real reforms like in immigration when the White House and both chambers of the U.S. Congress were in the control of the Democrats. It is payback time and unfortunately, many voters can only defeat Gavin Newsom for now.
(To be continued ...)

To read the first article of this series, please click on this link:

https://www.facebook.com/notes/bobby-m-reyes/why-john-chiang-will-win-the-election-for-governor-of-california-part-i/10216066228945961/


Last Updated on Friday, 15 June 2018 17:36
 

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